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更新时间：2023-04-09 17:57:15 发布时间：24小时内 作者：文/会员上传 下载doxc
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此刻在这个院子里的所有人，生命中总有这样或那样的时刻，目睹人类的悲剧，感到万分伤心。但是我们什么也没做，并非我们无动于衷，而是因为我们不知道做什么和怎么做。如果我们知道如何做是有效的，那么我们就会采取行动。
the barrier to change is not too little caring; it is too much complexity.
改变世界的阻碍，并非人类的冷漠，而是世界实在太复杂。
to turn caring into action, we need to see a problem, see a solution, and see the impact. but complexity blocks all three steps.
为了将关心转变为行动，我们需要找到问题，发现解决办法的方法，评估后果。但是世界的复杂性使得所有这些步骤都难于做到。
even with the advent of the internet and 24-hour news, it is still a complex enterprise to get people to truly see the problems. when an airplane crashes, officials immediately call a press conference. they promise to investigate, determine the cause, and prevent similar crashes in the future.
即使有了互联网和24小时直播的新闻台，让人们真正发现问题所在，仍然十分困难。当一架飞机坠毁了，官员们会立刻召开新闻发布会，他们进行调查、找到原因、防止将来再次发生类似事故。
but if the officials were brutally honest, they would say: "of all the people in the world who died today from preventable causes, one half of one percent of them were on this plane. we’re determined to do everything possible to solve the problem that took the lives of the one half of one percent."
但是如果那些官员敢说真话，他们就会说：“在今天这一天，全世界所有可以避免的死亡之中，只有0.5%的死者来自于这次空难。我们决心尽一切努力，调查这个0.5%的死亡原因。”
the bigger problem is not the plane crash, but the millions of preventable deaths.
显然，更重要的问题不是这次空难，而是其他几百万可以预防的死亡事件。
we don’t read much about these deaths. the media covers what’s new – and millions of people dying is nothing new. so it stays in the background, where it’s easier to ignore. but even when we do see it or read about it, it’s difficult to keep our eyes on the problem. it’s hard to look at suffering if the situation is so complex that we don’t know how to help. and so we look away.
我们并没有很多机会了解那些死亡事件。媒体总是报告新闻，几百万人将要死去并非新闻。如果没有人报道，那么这些事件就很容易被忽视。另一方面，即使 我们确实目睹了事件本身或者看到了相关报道，我们也很难持续关注这些事件。看着他人受苦是令人痛苦的，何况问题又如此复杂，我们根本不知道如何去帮助他 人。所以我们会将脸转过去。if we can really see a problem, which is the first step, we come to the second step: cutting through the complexity to find a solution.
就算我们真正发现了问题所在，也不过是迈出了第一步，接着还有第二步：那就是从复杂的事件中找到解决办法。
finding solutions is essential if we want to make the most of our caring. if we have clear and proven answers anytime an organization or individual asks "how can i help?," then we can get action – and we can make sure that none of the caring in the world is wasted. but complexity makes it hard to mark a path of action for everyone who cares — and that makes it hard for their caring to matter.
如果我们要让关心落到实处，我们就必须找到解决办法。如果我们有一个清晰的和可靠的答案，那么当任何组织和个人发出疑问“如何我能提供帮助”的时 候，我们就能采取行动。我们就能够保证不浪费一丁点全世界人类对他人的关心。但是，世界的复杂性使得很难找到对全世界每一个有爱心的人都有效的行动方法， 因此人类对他人的关心往往很难产生实际效果。
cutting through complexity to find a solution runs through four predictable stages: determine a goal, find the highest-leverage approach, discover the ideal technology for that approach, and in the meantime, make the smartest application of the technology that you already have — whether it’s something sophisticated, like a drug, or something simpler, like a bednet.
从这个复杂的世界中找到解决办法，可以分为四个步骤：确定目标，找到效的方法，发现适用于这个方法的新技术，同时最聪明地利用现有的技术，不管它是复杂的药物，还是最简单的蚊帐。
the aids epidemic offers an example. the broad goal, of course, is to end the disease. the highest-leverage approach is prevention. the ideal technology would be a vaccine that gives lifetime immunity with a single dose. so governments, drug companies, and foundations fund vaccine research. but their work is likely to take more than a decade, so in the meantime, we have to work with what we have in hand – and the best prevention approach we have now is getting people to avoid risky behavior.
艾滋病就是一个例子。总的目标，毫无疑问是消灭这种疾病。效的方法是预防。最理想的技术是发明一种疫苗，只要注射一次，就可以终生免疫。所以， 政府、制药公司、基金会应该资助疫苗研究。但是，这样研究工作很可能十年之内都无法完成。因此，与此同时，我们必须使用现有的技术，目前最有效的预防方法 就是设法让人们避免那些危险的行为。
pursuing that goal starts the four-step cycle again. this is the pattern. the crucial thing is to never stop thinking and working – and never do what we did with malaria and tuberculosis in the 20th century – which is to surrender to complexity and quit.要实现这个新的目标，又可以采用新的四步循环。这是一种模式。关键的东西是永远不要停止思考和行动。我们千万不能再犯上个世纪在疟疾和肺结核上犯过的错误，那时我们因为它们太复杂，而放弃了采取行动。
the final step – after seeing the problem and finding an approach – is to measure the impact of your work and share your successes and failures so that others learn from your efforts.
在发现问题和找到解决方法之后，就是最后一步——评估工作结果，将你的成功经验或者失败经验传播出去，这样其他人就可以从你的努力中有所收获。
you have to have the statistics, of course. you have to be able to show that a program is vaccinating millions more children. you have to be able to show a decline in the number of children dying from these diseases. this is essential not just to improve the program, but also to help draw more investment from business and government.
当然，你必须有一些统计数字。你必须让他人知道，你的项目为几百万儿童新接种了疫苗。你也必须让他人知道，儿童死亡人数下降了多少。这些都是很关键的，不仅有利于改善项目效果，也有利于从商界和政府得到更多的帮助。
but if you want to inspire people to participate, you have to show more than numbers; you have to convey the human impact of the work – so people can feel what saving a life means to the families affected.
但是，这些还不够，如果你想激励其他人参加你的项目，你就必须拿出更多的统计数字；你必须展示你的项目的人性因素，这样其他人就会感到拯救一个生命，对那些处在困境中的家庭到底意味着什么。
i remember going to davos some years back and sitting on a global health panel that was discussing ways to save millions of lives. millions! think of the thrill of saving just one person’s life – then multiply that by millions. … yet this was the most boring panel i’ve ever been on – ever. so boring even i couldn’t bear it.
几年前，我去瑞士达沃斯旁听一个全球健康问题论坛，会议的内容有关于如何拯救几百万条生命。天哪，是几百万！想一想吧，拯救一个人的生命已经让人何等激动，现在你要把这种激动再乘上几百万倍……但是，不幸的是，这是我参加过的最最乏味的论坛，乏味到我无法强迫自己听下去。
what made that experience especially striking was that i had just come from an event where we were introducing version 13 of some piece of software, and we had people jumping and shouting with excitement. i love getting people excited about software – but why can’t we generate even more excitement for saving lives?
那次经历之所以让我难忘，是因为之前我们刚刚发布了一个软件的第13个版本，我们让观众激动得跳了起来，喊出了声。我喜欢人们因为软件而感到激动，那么我们为什么不能够让人们因为能够拯救生命而感到更加激动呢？you can’t get people excited unless you can help them see and feel the impact. and how you do that – is a complex question.
除非你能够让人们看到或者感受到行动的影响力，否则你无法让人们激动。如何做到这一点，并不是一件简单的事。
still, i’m optimistic. yes, inequity has been with us forever, but the new tools we have to cut through complexity have not been with us forever. they are new – they can help us make the most of our caring – and that’s why the future can be different from the past.
同前面一样，在这个问题上，我依然是乐观的。不错，人类的不平等有史以来一直存在，但是那些能够化繁为简的新工具，却是最近才出现的。这些新工具可以帮助我们，将人类的同情心发挥的作用，这就是为什么将来同过去是不一样的。
the defining and ongoing innovations of this age – biotechnology, the computer, the internet – give us a chance we’ve never had before to end extreme poverty and end death from preventable disease.
这个时代无时无刻不在涌现出新的革新——生物技术，计算机，互联网——它们给了我们一个从未有过的机会，去终结那些极端的贫穷和非恶性疾病的死亡。
sixty years ago, george marshall came to this commencement and announced a plan to assist the nations of post-war europe. he said: "i think one difficulty is that the problem is one of such enormous complexity that the very mass of facts presented to the public by press and radio make it exceedingly difficult for the man in the street to reach a clear appraisement of the situation. it is virtually impossible at this distance to grasp at all the real significance of the situation."
六十年前，乔治•马歇尔也是在这个地方的毕业典礼上，宣布了一个计划，帮助那些欧洲国家的战后建设。他说：“我认为，困难的一点是这个问题太复杂， 报纸和电台向公众源源不断地提供各种事实，使得大街上的普通人极端难于清晰地判断形势。事实上，经过层层传播，想要真正地把握形势，是根本不可能的。”
thirty years after marshall made his address, as my class graduated without me, technology was emerging that would make the world smaller, more open, more visible, less distant.
马歇尔发表这个演讲之后的三十年，我那xx届学生毕业，当然我不在其中。那时，新技术刚刚开始萌芽，它们将使得这个世界变得更小、更开放、更容易看到、距离更近。
the emergence of low-cost personal computers gave rise to a powerful network that has transformed opportunities for learning and communicating.
低成本的个人电脑的出现，使得一个强大的互联网有机会诞生，它为学习和交流提供了巨大的机会。
the magical thing about this network is not just that it collapses distance and makes everyone your neighbor. it also dramatically increases the number of brilliant minds we can have working together on the same problem – and that scales up the rate of innovation to a staggering degree.
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